Contra Costa Housing Market Update - September 2024
The Big Story Lower Prices and Lower Mortgage Rates Quick Take: Nationally, the monthly cost of financing a median-priced home was 8.3% lower in August 2024 than in June because the median home price declined 2.1% over the past two months, and mortgage rates have dropped. In August, the average 30-year mortgage rate declined for the third month to 6.35%, a 0.87% drop from the 2024 high reached in early May. The Fed is expected to cut rates by at least 0.25% in its September 17-18 meeting. Rate cuts will benefit the current market. Sales rose 1.3% month over month, ending a streak of four consecutive monthly declines, while inventory rose to its highest level since 2020. Because sales have been so sluggish this year, we may see sales increase in the fall, as rates fall and homes become more affordable. Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section. *National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month’s data when possible and appropriate. Affordability matters. Go figure! Despite low affordability through June 2024, affordability began improving in August 2024. The median U.S. home price reached a record high in June 2024, as did the monthly cost of financing a median-priced home, even though mortgage rates weren’t quite at their highest level this year. In other words, affordability hit a record low in June. Generally, prices tend to peak in June during any given year, even though the market veered away from this seasonality for a few years during the pandemic. It was no surprise, therefore, when prices declined slightly in July and August of this year. Additionally, during July and August, inflation lowered meaningfully, which means rate cuts. The anticipation of rate cuts alone led to lower rates in July and August. Over the past two months, the average 30-year mortgage rate fell 0.51%, which drastically improved affordability. A rough but decent shorthand calculation for mortgage rates is that every 0.10% increase or decrease to mortgage rates equates to roughly a 1% increase or decrease in the monthly mortgage cost. This means that, over the past two months, the monthly payments on homes became approximately 5% cheaper. Sales and inventory generally also decline in the second half of the year. However, this historical trend has broken over the past couple of years. Sales have been historically low since January 2023; so, even though new listings have also been depressed, inventory has grown to its highest level since 2020. At this moment, homebuyers have more choice than they’ve had in years. Higher supply, lower price, and lower interest rates caused sales to increase month over month, albeit only slightly — up 1.3%. Sales may continue to increase, however, because of the improving conditions, and sales levels are so low they almost have nowhere to go but up. The mid-September Fed meeting will likely bring about the first in a series of rate cuts, and the housing market may fare extremely well next year due to the timing of the cuts. The inventory build-up will likely slow for the rest of the year; but, since it’s already grown substantially, that isn’t concerning. We expect to enter 2025 with falling rates, high inventory, and seasonally lower home prices, which should create a perfect storm for a hotter spring market. We realize spring is a bit far; but, until then, we expect the sluggish market we’ve experienced over the past two years to persist, at least in terms of sales. The current market is favoring buyers, so if you’re thinking of buying, we can at least say that you have the most options to choose from. Different regions and individual houses vary from the broad national trends, so we’ve included a Local Lowdown below to provide you with in-depth coverage for your area. As always, we will continue to monitor the housing and economic markets to best guide you in buying or selling your home. Big Story Data The Local Lowdown Quick Take: The median single-family home price fell 8.7% month over month, while condo prices declined 4.7%. We expect price contraction for the rest of the year, which is the seasonal norm. Total inventory fell 6.3% month over month, as sales rose and new listings declined. We expect inventory to decline and the overall market to slow as we make our way through the second half of the year. Months of Supply Inventory has declined month over month, indicating the market is improving for sellers. Currently, MSI remains under three months of supply for single-family homes, indicating it’s still a sellers’ market, while condo MSI shifted from a balanced market to a buyers' market. Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section. Median home prices declined month over month, which is the seasonal norm In Contra Costa, home prices haven’t been largely affected by rising mortgage rates after the initial period of price correction from May 2022 to January 2023. Since January 2023, the median single-family home price has increased 15%, while condo prices have risen 11%. Year over year, however, the median price was down 0.2% for single-family homes and 5% for condos. Single-family home prices peaked in May 2021, and condo prices peaked in May 2023; they are currently at 16% and 13% below peak, respectively. Prices are more likely to rise if more sellers come to the market. Inventory is so low that rising supply will only increase prices as buyers are better able to find the best match. More homes must come to the market to get anything close to a healthy market. That said, inventory, sales, and price typically peak in the first half of the year, so we expect contraction across those metrics for the rest of the year. Inventory is still low enough that it should create price support as supply declines in the second half of the year. High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but home buyers and sellers seemed to tolerate rates near 6% much more than around 7%. Now that rates are declining, sales could get a little boost, but the housing market typically begins to slow as we make our way into fall. Sales rose while inventory and new listings fell in August In August, inventory and new listings declined, which is normal for this time of year, while home sales rose. Compared to this time last year, inventory has increased significantly, up 31%. Sales are up 3% for single-family homes, but condo sales declined 4%. Any amount of increasing inventory is good for the Contra Costa market. Inventory still has a long way to go before the market begins to become more balanced. When we take a longer look back and compare the supply of homes in August 2019 (pre-pandemic) to now, active listings have decreased by 43%. With that in mind, it should be no surprise that sales have declined by 35%. Total inventory has trended lower essentially since 2007, but active listings fell precipitously from July 2022 to December 2022, as sales outpaced new listings, before stabilizing from January 2023 to the present at a depressed level — still 12% lower than two years ago. Low inventory and new listings, coupled with high mortgage rates, have led to a substantial drop in sales and a generally slower housing market. Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. In 2023, sales and inventory didn’t resemble the typical seasonal peaks and valleys. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will follow historically seasonal patterns, albeit at a depressed level. It’s clear that supply will remain tight until spring 2025 at the earliest. Months of Supply Inventory in August 2024 indicated a sellers’ market for single-family homes and a balanced market for condos Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Contra Costa housing market tends to favor sellers, which is reflected in its low MSI, especially for single-family homes. MSI has been below three months since October 2014 (2014 is not a typo!) for single-family homes. In 2024, MSI has risen meaningfully for single-family homes and condos. In August, condo MSI indicated a balanced market, while single-family home MSI still implied a strong sellers’ market. Local Lowdown Data
Alameda Housing Market Update - September 2024
The Big Story Lower Prices and Lower Mortgage Rates Quick Take: Nationally, the monthly cost of financing a median-priced home was 8.3% lower in August 2024 than in June because the median home price declined 2.1% over the past two months, and mortgage rates have dropped. In August, the average 30-year mortgage rate declined for the third month to 6.35%, a 0.87% drop from the 2024 high reached in early May. The Fed is expected to cut rates by at least 0.25% in its September 17-18 meeting. Rate cuts will benefit the current market. Sales rose 1.3% month over month, ending a streak of four consecutive monthly declines, while inventory rose to its highest level since 2020. Because sales have been so sluggish this year, we may see sales increase in the fall, as rates fall and homes become more affordable. Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section. *National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month’s data when possible and appropriate. Affordability matters. Go figure! Despite low affordability through June 2024, affordability began improving in August 2024. The median U.S. home price reached a record high in June 2024, as did the monthly cost of financing a median-priced home, even though mortgage rates weren’t quite at their highest level this year. In other words, affordability hit a record low in June. Generally, prices tend to peak in June during any given year, even though the market veered away from this seasonality for a few years during the pandemic. It was no surprise, therefore, when prices declined slightly in July and August of this year. Additionally, during July and August, inflation lowered meaningfully, which means rate cuts. The anticipation of rate cuts alone led to lower rates in July and August. Over the past two months, the average 30-year mortgage rate fell 0.51%, which drastically improved affordability. A rough but decent shorthand calculation for mortgage rates is that every 0.10% increase or decrease to mortgage rates equates to roughly a 1% increase or decrease in the monthly mortgage cost. This means that, over the past two months, the monthly payments on homes became approximately 5% cheaper. Sales and inventory generally also decline in the second half of the year. However, this historical trend has broken over the past couple of years. Sales have been historically low since January 2023; so, even though new listings have also been depressed, inventory has grown to its highest level since 2020. At this moment, homebuyers have more choice than they’ve had in years. Higher supply, lower price, and lower interest rates caused sales to increase month over month, albeit only slightly — up 1.3%. Sales may continue to increase, however, because of the improving conditions, and sales levels are so low they almost have nowhere to go but up. The mid-September Fed meeting will likely bring about the first in a series of rate cuts, and the housing market may fare extremely well next year due to the timing of the cuts. The inventory build-up will likely slow for the rest of the year; but, since it’s already grown substantially, that isn’t concerning. We expect to enter 2025 with falling rates, high inventory, and seasonally lower home prices, which should create a perfect storm for a hotter spring market. We realize spring is a bit far; but, until then, we expect the sluggish market we’ve experienced over the past two years to persist, at least in terms of sales. The current market is favoring buyers, so if you’re thinking of buying, we can at least say that you have the most options to choose from. Different regions and individual houses vary from the broad national trends, so we’ve included a Local Lowdown below to provide you with in-depth coverage for your area. As always, we will continue to monitor the housing and economic markets to best guide you in buying or selling your home. Big Story Data The Local Lowdown Quick Take: The median single-family home price fell 2.2% month over month, while condo prices declined 11.2%. We expect price contraction for the rest of the year, which is the seasonal norm. Total inventory fell 7.3% month over month, as sales outpaced new listings. We expect inventory to decline and the overall market to slow further as we make our way through the second half of the year. Months of Supply Inventory has declined month over month, indicating the market is improving for sellers. Currently, MSI remains under three months of supply for single-family homes, indicating it’s still a sellers’ market, while condo MSI continues to indicate a buyers’ market. Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section. Median home prices declined month over month, which is the seasonal norm In Alameda, home prices haven’t been largely affected by rising mortgage rates after the initial period of price correction from May 2022 to January 2023. Since January 2023, the median single-family home price has increased 23%, while condo prices have trended horizontally, increasing 3%. Year over year, however, the median price was up 27% in August for single-family homes and 32% for condos. Both single-family homes and condo prices peaked in May 2022 and are both 17% below peak currently. Prices are more likely to rise if more sellers come to the market. Inventory is so low that rising supply will only increase prices as buyers are better able to find the best match. More homes must come to the market to get anything close to a healthy market. That said, inventory, sales, and price typically peak in the first half of the year, so we expect contraction across those metrics for the rest of the year. Single-family home inventory is still low enough that it should create price support as supply declines in the second half of the year. High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but home buyers and sellers seemed to tolerate rates near 6% much more than around 7%. Now that rates are declining, sales could get a little boost, but the housing market typically begins to slow as we make our way into fall. Sales, inventory, and new listings fell in August for single-family homes In August, home sales, inventory, and new listings declined slightly, which is normal for this time of year. Compared to this time last year, inventory has increased significantly, up 28%. Sales are up 2% for single-family homes, while condo sales fell 12%. Any amount of increasing inventory is good for the Alameda market. Inventory still has a long way to go before the market begins to become more balanced. When we take a longer look back and compare the supply of homes in August 2019 (pre-pandemic) to now, active listings have decreased by 40%. With that in mind, it should be no surprise that sales have declined by 34%. Total inventory has trended lower essentially since 2010, but active listings fell precipitously from July 2022 to December 2022, as sales outpaced new listings, before stabilizing to a degree from January 2023 to the present at a depressed level — still 24% lower than two years ago. Low inventory and new listings, coupled with high mortgage rates, have led to a substantial drop in sales and a generally slower housing market. Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. In 2023, sales and inventory didn’t resemble the typical seasonal peaks and valleys. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will follow historically seasonal patterns, albeit at a depressed level. It’s clear that supply will remain tight until spring 2025 at the earliest. Months of Supply Inventory in August 2024 indicated a sellers’ market for single-family homes and a buyers’ market for condos Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Alameda housing market tends to favor sellers, which is reflected in its low MSI, especially for single-family homes. MSI has been below three months since July 2012 (2012 is not a typo!) for single-family homes. In 2024, MSI has risen meaningfully for condos. In August, condo MSI indicated a buyers’ market, while single-family home MSI still implied a strong sellers’ market. Local Lowdown Data
Why Forest Hill Should Be Your Next Move in the San Francisco Bay Area
Tucked away in the heart of San Francisco, Forest Hill stands as one of the city’s most serene and exclusive neighborhoods. Known for its lush greenery, elegant homes, and tranquil atmosphere, this residential enclave offers a perfect blend of suburban comfort with city convenience. Why Choose Forest Hill? Charming Architecture Forest Hill is home to some of the most beautiful and unique properties in San Francisco. Here, you’ll find a blend of Tudor, Mediterranean, and modern architectural styles. Peaceful Ambiance One of Forest Hill’s most notable characteristics is its peaceful, tree-lined streets. Forest Hill is refreshingly quiet, offering a retreat from the hustle and bustle of city life. Convenient Location If you prefer public transportation or need to leave your car at home, the West Portal Muni Train Station is within close proximity to Forest Hill and will take you to the Embarcadero. If you work Downtown or in the Financial District, you will be so appreciative on those days you don’t want to drive. Despite its tranquil setting, Forest Hill is conveniently located near some of the City’s best attractions. With easy access to the West Portal neighborhood and its variety of shops, restaurants, and cafes, residents don’t have to travel far for daily necessities. Plus, Forest Hill is well-connected via public transit, making downtown San Francisco just a short ride away. Ideal for Families Forest Hill’s quiet streets and proximity to highly regarded schools make it a top choice for families. Stunning Green Spaces Living up to its name, Forest Hill is surrounded by natural beauty. Mt. Davidson Park and Stern Grove are nearby, offering outdoor enthusiasts ample opportunities to explore the area’s scenic trails, open green spaces, and even outdoor concerts in the summer months. How Much Does it Cost to Live in Forest Hill? Homes in Forest Hill are on the higher end of the San Francisco market, typically ranging from $2.5 million to $6 million. The neighborhood’s exclusivity, coupled with its desirable features, makes it a sought-after location for those looking for a luxurious, yet peaceful lifestyle in San Francisco. Is Forest Hill Right for You? If you’re searching for a San Francisco neighborhood that offers privacy, elegance, and a strong sense of community, Forest Hill could be the perfect fit. Whether you’re raising a family or simply seeking a quiet haven in the city, this charming neighborhood provides the best of both worlds. According to www.REALTOR.COM, Forest Hill in San Francisco, CA, is a very hot market. It ranks in the top 11% of neighborhoods in the area and the top 12% in the U.S Ready to Move to Forest Hill? You’ve Found the Right Agent! Let me help you find your dream home in this prestigious San Francisco neighborhood! Sterling Home For Sale in Forest Hill 266 Pacheco St. San Francisco, CA 94116 $5,650,000 This gated and redone estate in Forest Hill exudes modern sophistication and offers conveniences, while honoring its historical San Francisco's architecture. It blends classic elegance with contemporary style, curated by architect Suheil Shatara & designer Vaso Peritos. Has voluminous public rooms, elegant design, air-condition and flooded with natural light. The dedicated gym, spa & wellness rooms offer a refined living experience.The open-concept on main floor flows effortlessly from the chef's kitchen to the family lounge while the formal dining & living rooms are perfect for sunlit dining & entertainment of guests. Upstairs, on the same level are 4 spacious & luxurious bedroom suites & laundry. The garden level boasts 2 bedrooms,2 baths, 2nd laundry, wine cellar, wellness amenities, fitness/meditation room, sauna & steam room, offering relaxation & rejuvenation. Outside, the enchanting backyard oasis offers a serene escape from the hustle & bustle of City life where one can unwind w/a glass of wine under the stars. Above garage is a studio with AC perfect for office or au pair. 266 Pacheco has AC, is cool, designed for comfort,is luxurious - a lifestyle statement. More information: 266 Pacheco St. Listed by: Anna G Spathis Dennis Stavropoulos Sterling Homes CEO
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